It’s the eve of the 2026 NFL Draft, and after a years worth of player evaluations and careful combing of current team needs, this is how I see things shaking out over the first two rounds.Â
I considered projecting trades. Some expect the first round to be full of them. Rather than add even more hypotheticals to the exercise, I did what most of the league will do Thursday: “stick and pick.”Â
I did roll the dice in projecting a few surprises, however. The unexpected picks are what make the NFL Draft so compelling every year. One thing fans should expect are runs on receivers, offensive tackles and cornerbacks in the first round, with edge rushers being all the rage throughout the late portion of the first and throughout the second round.Â
1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, IndianaÂ
Long-suffering Raiders fans, this is your moment. Klint Kubiak, the brilliant playcaller that helped turn Sam Darnold into a Super Bowl winner, took this job in large part because of the opportunity to select Mendoza, a perfect match for his offense. Prototypically built â from both a size and intangibles perspective â Mendoza looks like a good bet to hit big in Las Vegas. Â
2. New York Jets: David Bailey, Edge, Texas TechÂ
The Jets finished last in the AFC in sacks last season â and that was with defensive linemen Quinnen Williams and Jermaine Johnson for much of it. Bailey is the best pass-rusher in this class, winning with great burst and bend. An aggressive offseason spent adding veterans suggests that the Jets want the most bang for their buck with this pick, which is why they might lean toward Bailey over Arvell Reese, who has better traits.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre DameÂ
An anemic pass rush sure could use a boost, but the Cardinals arent going to climb out of the cellar in the NFC West if they cant score. Love is the most dynamic player in this draft and the kind of instant superstar that new coach Mike LaFleur (and general manager Monti Ossenfort) could lean on as their roster reset takes place.Â
4. Tennessee Titans: Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State
Robert Saleh knows what hes getting with Jermaine Johnson after previously coaching him in New York, but unless the Titans work out a long-term deal with him, the club should take advantage of the opportunity to boost their pass rush. Johnson, after all, has recorded just 13 sacks in his four NFL seasons. Reese is an athletic phenom with enough size to play virtually anywhere in the front seven, tilting the field in his teams favor.Â
5. New York Giants: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Speaking of stylistic matches, few NFL head coaches have enjoyed the success with safeties that John Harbaugh has, drafting three in the first round while with the Ravens, including All-Pro Kyle Hamilton and last years top pick, Malaki Starks. Incumbent starter Tyler Nubin missed the final few games last year with a neck injury that could force the Giants to consider alternative options. Downs is a true alpha, the best open-field tackler in this class and, in my opinion, its best overall player.Â
6. Cleveland Browns: Spencer Fano, OT, UtahÂ
It doesnt matter much who plays quarterback in Cleveland given its current situation at wide receiver and offensive tackle. Fano is a dancing bear at 6-foot-5, 311 pounds, with experience blocking at both tackle positions. Given Fanos durability (37 games played in three seasons), versatility and upside, it makes sense for the Browns to take their pick of the litter among linemen first before looking for receiver help
