“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
The Preakness moves to Laurel for the year and with the new location comes 12 new runners to the Triple Crown trail, as only Ocelli and Incredibolt are running in the second jewel of the Triple Crown after starting in the Kentucky Derby.
Its a wide open race with a 9-2 favorite on the Morning Line (Iron Honor) and a trio of 5-1 shots (Incredibolt, Chip Honcho and Taj Mahal). If you like one of those four horses, youll still get paid if they win.Â
However, it does have the makings of the tote board lighting up, just as it did in the Derby.
Here are some thoughts on the race and how Ill bet it, in an effort to get whole after a poor Derby!
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
Notes, Stats and Trends
Taj Mahal (1) certainly seems like the “now” horse for a lot of people. Hes 3-for-3, with each of his wins coming at Laurel, the last two in front-running fashion. Brittany Russell will try to make it consecutive Triple Crown races won by female trainers. I certainly dont know what was behind Taj Mahal in any of those races, but this is a subpar Preakness in overall talent level. Taj Mahal will likely have company on the lead, and that probably isnt a great thing, being Taj Mahal will be breaking from the rail. Id expect a bunch of (3) Crupper, (4) Robusta, (6) Chip Honcho, (10) Napoleon Solo, (11) Corona de Oro and (14) Pretty Boy Miah to contest the early going. I expect Taj Mahal to go as a tepid favorite, and I will be standing against in the win pool.
Iron Honor (9) is a horse that interests me quite a bit. Chad Browns Preakness horses that are bet to 6-1 or better have never been worse than fourth (a win, a second and two fourths). The Gotham winner was a beaten favorite in the Wood Memorial from an impossible far outside post. I love the blinkers off angle here, which should keep him off what I think will be a hotly contested pace. Ill be keying him in all spots in the tri and super. Each of the last six Preakness favorites have finished in the money (one win, three seconds and two thirds).
Im tossing the (2) Ocelli. His third-place run in the Derby has “closer that caught a clean run in the stretch behind a collapsing pace” written all over it. The shorter stretch here wont help him â or any other deep closer â get up for the win, despite what I think will be a quick pace. I think hell be an underlay here, and I just can’t get behind a horse that was 28-1 and 71-1 in his two graded stakes races and will now be 5-1 or 6-1.
Steve Asmussen, who has won this race twice, sends (6) Chip Honcho to post. Since those two wins, just two of Asmussens 13 Preakness starters have managed to run even second, so he hasnt had a great run here lately â see Clever Again last year, who cut out fast fractions and finished last. Honcho feels like one of those horses that needs everything to go his way to have a chance to win, and Im not sure if that’s gonna be the case here. Those who like him can certainly point to him finishing five lengths clear of Derby winner Golden Tempo in the Risen Star. Feels like an underneath type to me.
(10) Napoleon Solo is trainer Chad Summers first Triple Crown starter and is another one that will certainly be on the lead. His two races as a three-year-old havent matched what he did as a two-year-old in New York at shorter distances, so I am skeptical.
I thought (12) Incredibolt would run well in the Derby, and he did run decently. Hell be chasing a quick pace and if he can work a trip where hes not too far back, hes got a chance here. Ill be using.
