In 1979, American indecision and the abandonment of a loyal ally helped pave the way for the rise of Islamist and the loss of pro-Western Iran to the Soviet camp. In 2026, the same reluctance to support Iran’s pro-democracy opposition and its recognized leadership has once again strengthened Islamist forces, leaving America humiliated and strategically diminished while the struggle between radical Islamism and Iranian nationalism continues beneath the surface.
Many Iranians view 1979s revolt as the beginning of a regime built on violence and terrorism. During the uprising, Trump voiced support for the Iranians while continuing to pursue a deal with Tehran. Yet many regime opponents later thanked Trump and Netanyahu for confronting , whom they regarded as the principal symbol of repression and bloodshed in Iran.
Reasonable people can support or oppose the agreement. Yet several realities should not be ignored. Throughout history, dictators and terrorist movements have not changed their nature simply because others chose to negotiate with them. A dictator does not become a friend of freedom overnight, and a terrorist organization does not suddenly begin handing flowers and chocolates to the very people it has oppressed and humiliated.
The belief that fundamentally change without dismantling its destructive ideological foundations and propaganda machinery is unrealistic. The structure remains intact. The institutions that sustain the regime remain in place. Eliminating a few commanders or military assets does not dismantle a deeply entrenched junta and ideological system.
The Ali Khamenei dealt a significant blow to the regime’s prestige and morale. Yet because the broader structure survived, those who inherited power are now seeking survival and time. They offer promises that may appeal to Trump, but many Iranians do not believe them.
As a result, Trump, once viewed by many Iranians as a hero for confronting Tehrans dictator, is now seen by many of those same people as having abandoned their cause in favor of another deal with the regime. Many opponents of the regime believe that another agreement has come at the expense of those who lost their lives during the uprising.
One of Trump’s most significant achievements during his first term was the elimination of Soleimani, the architect of Iran’s regional terror network. If the deaths of Imad Mughniyeh and were major milestones in the fight against Islamic terrorism, then the elimination of Soleimani was arguably even more consequential.
Yet Soleimani’s demise did not destroy the structure he helped build. Ahmad Vahidi, now one of the most influential figures in the post-Khamenei order, remained part of the system. The overseas terrorist apparatus of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the continues to exist.
Soleimani’s end did not wreck the structure he built. The terrorist network survived. As a result, many fear that the agreement, much like previous diplomatic openings with Tehran, will encourage a renewed sense of impunity within the .
Another important development was the weakening of Tehran’s proxy network and the reduction of its regional influence. When perceived an existential threat to its survival, Mossad â under the leadership of Yossi Cohen and later David Barnea â succeeded in significantly damaging the Islamic Republic’s transnational terror network throughout the so-called Shiite Crescent.
Yet the network has not disappeared. The regime’s “4H” axis â , Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi militias â remains intact, and Tehran continues to rely on these groups to create pressure on Israel whenever necessary.
A third important factor was Trump’s support for Israel in the face of direct Iranian missile and drone attacks. The threats made by Khamenei against Israel and the Jewish people echoed rhetoric previously associated with some of the most notorious dictators
