Trump bets on former NATO troublemaker as Turkey’s strategic value surges

President says he’s attending the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, for one reason: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

“I’m going because of Erdoğan,” Trump told reporters June 24, calling the Turkish leader “a friend” and “a respected leader” while signaling that closer defense cooperation between Washington and Ankara could be on the horizon.

The summit will begin Tuesday in Ankara, Turkey.

The remarks underscore a striking shift in the relationship between Washington and Turkey. Just a few years ago, after Turkey took delivery of Russia’s S-400 air defense system in 2019, Washington expelled it from the multinational F-35 fighter program and, the following year, imposed sanctions on Turkey’s defense procurement agency, cementing its reputation as one of NATO’s most difficult allies.

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Today, despite many of those disputes remaining unresolved, Turkey has become increasingly difficult for the alliance to sideline as NATO confronts Russia, instability across the Middle East and an increasingly contested Black Sea, analysts and former officials say.

“Turkey is crucial to the Trump administration,” former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey James Jeffrey, who served as Trump’s special representative for Syria during his first term, told Fox News Digital.

“President Trump has a great relationship with President Erdoğan of Turkey, who has been an incredible partner in the region,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told Fox News Digital in a statement, adding that Trump would have a bilateral meeting with Erdoğan at the NATO Summit. 

Jeffrey said Trump’s affinity for Erdoğan is genuine but reflects more than personal chemistry.

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“The first reason, which is unique to Trump, is he really likes Erdoğan, and Erdoğan likes him,” Jeffrey said. “It’s the idea of a tough guy who is decisive.”

But Jeffrey argued the strategic rationale extends well beyond the relationship between the two leaders, describing Turkey as “essential to maintaining the U.S. perimeter around Eurasia” because of its military strength, geographic position and willingness to project power.

NATO is returning to the fundamentals of collective defense after decades focused largely on counterterrorism, said Hudson Institute think tank Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu Kasapoğlu, placing renewed pressure on allies to bring significant military capability to the table.

“When the alliance is back to its Cold War default, the question of what you are bringing to the table is getting more important,” he said.

“The nations bringing hard-power capability to NATO are going to get VIP treatment.”

NATO agreed to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP for all allies in 2025, after years of Trump complaining that European allies and their weak defense spending were “ripping off” the U.S.

Both Trumps attacks on NATO and the Russian war on Ukraine changed the calculus.

Turkey fields NATO’s second-largest military after the United States. It controls the Bosporus and Dardanelles, borders Syria, Iraq and Iran, and has built one of NATO’s largest defense industries.

“There is no real security for NATO without full integration of T