“It wont be long now.” That was President Donald J. Trump, speaking on the timeline for commercial traffic to flow again through the Strait of Hormuz at the White House on Tuesday. are “knocking the hell out of the coast,” Trump said. “As soon as that war is over, which it will be soon, prices are going to drop like a rock,” he added. “You watch.”
Control of the Strait of Hormuz is a top geopolitical prize, and one of the core objectives of Operation Epic Fury. On a good day, 130 ships transit the Strait every 24 hours, moving cargo and about 20 million barrels of oil products. Currently, about 6 million barrels per day of oil from Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates have been rerouted to Red Sea pipelines.Â
China takes 40% of the oil flowing through the Strait. All told, 89% of the oil transiting the Strait goes to Asian markets. In contrast, U.S. crude oil imports coming through the Strait of Hormuz are at a 40-year low, accounting for just 2% of U.S. petroleum liquids consumption, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.Â
You can see the potential for leverage with China.Â
From March 1 to 9, only an estimated 10 tankers and 39 cargo vessels transited. Two Indian tankers carrying LPG, made it through, along with several sanctioned, shadow-fleet vessels likely carrying Iranian oil. The bulk carrier Iron Maiden, registered in the Marshall Islands, slipped through by describing itself as “,” according to a Maritime Executive report. Â
But most of the big VLCC tankers are still on pause because Lloyds of London and other insurers jacked up oil cargo insurance rates. They fear a repeat of the 1980s tanker war, when Irans navy attacked 168 ships. One was the oil and bulk ore carrier Norman Atlantic, which was set ablaze after attacks by Iranian gunboats on December 6, 1987. The burning hulk was towed out of the shipping lane and sunk off Oman.Â
With more than 100 in Operation Epic Fury, there is practically no way Iran can sustain naval attacks. In fact, no ship has been targeted since March 12.Â
However, the persistent tactical problem is that large ships following a predictable route are easier to target, even given I
