In Michigan, while more Democrats than Republicans are concerned about their candidates ideological views, Democrats are also more engaged and enthusiastic about the upcoming election, setting up a battle in the Wolverine State.
After a heated Democratic primary, progressive Abdul El-Sayed secured the Senate nomination and will face Republican Mike Rogers this fall as Democrats try to retake the Senate.
According to a Fox News survey of , Rogers has the edge in the race with 51% to El-Sayeds 47%, within the surveys margin of sampling error.
Rogers edge comes mostly from greater party unity among Republicans. Nearly all Republicans (96%), including both MAGA (99%) and non-MAGA Republicans (89%), back Rogers.Â
Only a week after winning the primary race, 9 in 10 Democrats (91%) and nearly all supporters (98%) back El-Sayed, but that falls to 69% among non-DSA Democrats and independents. The small subgroup of independents narrowly favors Rogers.
El-Sayeds coalition includes liberal voters, Black voters, urban residents and women with a college degree.
Rogers most loyal groups are conservatives, White evangelical Christians, rural voters and White men without a degree.
Men favor Rogers by 11 points (44% El-Sayed vs. 55% Rogers), while women are split (49-48%).Â
President won the Wolverine State in 2016 and 2024, each time by less than 2 points, while former President Joe Biden won by nearly 3 points in 2020.
El-Sayed is underperforming with Black voters, women and suburban voters compared with former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Rogers similarly trails Trumps 2024 support among voters under age 30 and independents. Thats according to the 2024 Michigan Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA).
Voter enthusiasm for their candidate is evident on both sides. About three-quarters of each candidates supporters are certain they will stick with their choice this fall, and about two-thirds say their support is mainly for their candidate rather than against his opponent.
El-Sayed leads among the most engaged voters with an 11-point advantage among those extremely interested in the election, a 7-point lead among those extremely motivated and a 4-point edge among definite voters (10-out-of-10 likelihood).
Moreover, more than Republicans are extremely interested (+15 points), motivated to vote (+11) and certain they will cast a ballot this November (+7).
More than half the electorate is concerned El-Sayeds positions on the issues are too extreme (54%) and that Rogers is too close to Trump (51%).
Voters on both sides of the aisle share concerns about their candidates ideological positioning. Twice as many Democrats are concerned El-Sayed is too extreme (30%) as Republicans are that Rogers is too close to Trump (14%). By a 10-point margin, more independents are concerned about Rogers ties to Trump than El-Sayeds issue positions (58% vs. 48%).
Trumps favorable rating is underwater by 19 points in Michigan (40% favorable, 59% unfavorable). Both Senate candidates also have negative ratings, with El-Sayed (-13 points) faring worse than Rogers (-6).
The two major political parties are viewed negatively. The Republican Party has a -12 net favorable rating while the Democratic Party is at -13.
“The energy is on the left in Michigan, as it is throughout the country, and that should help with turnout,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson.Â
“But El-Sayeds nomination path highlighted party rifts. He needs to reassure a wide range of Michigan Democrats â including Reagan Democrats, Jewish voters and Black voters â that he will serve their interests rather than pursue an extremist agenda.”
The MAGA movement is viewed more favorably than the DSA by 10 points (40% vs. 30%). However, more voters have strongly unfavorable views of MAGA than DSA (45% vs. 37%).
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